Coronavirus variant JN.1 has been classified by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as a "variant of interest" but experts say the public risk is low.
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However, JN.1 has a "greater likelihood" than its parent strain Pirola (BA.2.86) of replacing Eris (EG.5.1) in Australia due to its rapid spread across 41 countries in fewer than four months, according to a clinician.
The new strain, first detected in the U.S. in September, is a related subvariant of Pirola, which has circulated in Australia for months.
Deakin University chair of epidemiology Professor Catherine Bennett said Pirola struggled to establish dominance around the country.
Eris' burn out creates opening for JN.1
Professor Bennett said the recent Eris surge in Australia, linked to the latest COVID-19 wave, was beginning to plateau for the first time in five months.
JN.1's strain characteristics, including infectiousness, could "drive a new wave off the back of the current one", Professor Bennett said.
"Just as Australia heads into our time of greatest social mixing."
Professor Bennett said Australia could "see a new wave off the back of the late spring [Eris] wave, similar to the double wave seen overseas".
Existing vaccines would continue to protect against severe disease and death from the new variant and others circulating, WHO said.
"Thankfully summer waves have been less impactful in the past here, as seen also overseas, but we are experiencing very unpredictable weather at the moment," Professor Bennett said.
"So the usual expectations of a protective largely outdoor holiday season might be optimistic this year."
Anna Houlahan
Anna Houlahan is a journalist for the Courier, dedicated to uncovering the stories that shape the city. Reach out with news or updates to anna.houlahan@austcommunitymedia.com.au
