Bradley Perrett | In releasing Cheng Lei, Beijing is choosing better relations

Even if our officials succeed, China can easily nab more Australians later when it wants a bit of obedience from us. Taking hostages is now part of its standard operating procedure.

A great deal of Australian diplomatic work went into pushing China to release the broadcaster Cheng Lei, whom it arrested on obviously trumped up charges three years ago. But we should recognise that she was let out of jail this week because releasing her was what suited China.

The change in position has happened in Beijing, not Canberra.

As indeed it should have. So far as we know, Australia made no concessions to recover Cheng, though, quite rightly, we have toned down our language about China since Labor was elected. If anything, our overall stance against it has strengthen since 2020, because we have concluded the AUKUS defence-technology agreement with the UK and US.

Why, then, has China rewarded our unyielding attitude? Probably because it sensibly understands that it is more likely to get something it wants from Australia if the government and public here don't view it so much as an ogre.

Issues will arise from time to time, notably in trade and investment. When they do, Beijing will hope we agree to it getting some advantage. It probably also understands that perceptions of hostility only make us cling more tightly to the US.

A big step towards improving the relationship will be the visit to China that Anthony Albanese will make this year, the first for an Australian prime minister since 2016. China seems very keen for that visit to go ahead, says David Goodman, director of the China Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He bases that understanding on conversations with academics in China.

"China is trying to improve its international profile generally," he adds.

A few years of wolf-warrior diplomacy, in which Chinese officials treated foreign counterparts globally with aggression, abrasiveness and sheer rudeness, began to fade in 2022. Beijing has clearly realised that its conduct has become counterproductive - or at least President Xi Jinping has worked that out.

So Cheng's release is a part of a larger pattern of improved behaviour.

In a remarkable report on the internal doings of the Chinese Communist Party, the reputable Japanese newspaper Nikkei said last month that Xi had lately got a dressing down from retired party elders over the state of the country.

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"The gist of the message was that if the political, economic and social turmoil continues without any effective countermeasures being taken, the party could lose public support, posing a threat to its rule," the Nikkei said, citing unnamed sources.

Since China's poor relationships with almost all wealthy countries are damaging its trade and inward foreign investment, worsening unemployment, Xi is probably feeling domestic pressure to seek calmer international waters.

Cheng was arrested at the height of the wolf-warrior phase, a few months after Scott Morrison quite properly called for an international inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, something that the CCP was trying very hard to cover up.

A mystery is why Cheng was chosen as the hostage. Her unusually prominent position in China as a well known presenter on international state broadcaster CGTN looks like a clue, but the connection isn't clear.

The accusation was revealing state secrets, just about the easiest one for officials to trump up. Almost anything she said about her employer to a foreigner could have been held up as a wrongfully revealed state secret. Supposedly some incriminating messages were found on her phone.

In 2018, two Canadians were arrested as hostages. The aim was to pressure Canada to set aside due legal process and release a Chinese business executive who was subject to proceedings for extradition to the US. Beijing was happy to proclaim its hostage tactic to the world by releasing the Canadians at the same time as the executive came to a deal with US authorities and returned to China.

The other Australian detainee, the writer Yang Hengjun, was arrested in 2019. China has reasons for holding him other than pressuring Australia. He is a former Chinese diplomat and agent of the Ministry of State Security, the intelligence and political security service, who became an Australian citizen and a public critic of the CCP.

Cheng may have been a mere pawn in a game, but the party no doubt sees Yang as a villain in his own right. He's been charged with espionage - again, something that's easily concocted.

There are fears for his health, but getting him back may be hard for Australia.

When Albanese goes to China, we can expect plenty of excitement about improved export access that we actually shouldn't want, except to uphold a principle that trade agreements should be honoured.

Rebuilding trade after China blocked our exports in 2020 would be only asking for trouble. To use the apt phrase of former Australian Strategic Policy Institute chief Peter Jennings, it would amount to going back into an abusive relationship.

China's improved behaviour isn't permanent. What is permanent is its unacceptable grasping for territory, especially Taiwan and the South China Sea, its ruthless, us-versus-them attitude to international affairs, and the resulting inevitability of its clashes with the democracies.

We have Cheng back. We may get Yang back. But sooner or later things will turn nasty again.