WHY QUEENSLAND WILL WIN

* REECE LIGHTNING

Billy Slater made the bold call to drop Kalyn Ponga, who was man of the match in last year's decider, for Brisbane fullback Reece Walsh. But in Walsh, Slater has a 20-year-old who appears afraid of nothing. The Broncos whiz throws caution to the wind and has 13 try assists and four tries to his name at club level this season.

* HOOKER HARMONY

Slater's Maroons won last year's series on the back of a one-two punch at hooker of Ben Hunt and Harry Grant. It was so effective, Australia coach Mal Meninga copied it in the Kangaroos' World Cup triumph. Queensland played with speed through the middle and although Grant is named to start, it would be no surprise to see Slater turn to him when the NSW pack begins to tire.

* DAVID IS GOLIATH

David Fifita has earned his Queensland recall on the back of his scintillating form at club level. There is arguably no more destructive forward in the game than the Titans' brute and he has the ability to produce something out of nothing. Expect Slater to introduce him from the bench with a focus of unsettling Blues halfback Nathan Cleary.

WHY NSW WILL WIN

* CLEARY IN THE ZONE

NSW tend to chew their halfbacks up and spit them aside, but Cleary is now into his fifth Origin campaign. Cleary is still just 25 but has already won back-to-back premierships with Penrith and dislodged Queensland halfback Daly Cherry-Evans as Australia's first choice No. 7. Blues great Andrew Johns has said Cleary is at a stage in his career where he can own a series and guide NSW to victory off the back of his own exploits.

* CAPTAIN FANTASTIC

James Tedesco has been below par at club level with the Sydney Roosters, but the NSW fullback and skipper has always found a way to deliver when Origin comes around. This will be Tedesco's 20th consecutive game for the Blues. Across his 19 games to date, Tedesco has seven tries and 13 try assists to his name.

* A PACK WITH PUNCH

NSW concede they were intimidated last year by the Maroons and Fittler has looked to fight fire with fire in 2023. The inclusion of prop Tevita Pangai Jr on debut is likely to produce sparks against a Queensland pack stacked with his old Brisbane teammates. Fellow debutant, Canberra backrower Hudson Young, will also be doing everything they can to unsettle the Queenslanders.

Australian Associated Press