Medical advocacy groups are up in arms, after the Independent Health and Aged Care Pricing Authority (IHACPA) estimated that the cost of providing hospital services will increase by 3.7 per cent over the next year - more than double the annual 1.6 per cent increase in the rate of the Medicare Rebate.
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The IHACPA, whose reports on pricing are used as a benchmark to help determine funding to hospitals and aged care homes, noted that supply chain disruptions, increases in the Superannuation Guarantee, wage increases, and rising energy costs are contributing to the surging cost of providing medical services.
But advocacy groups say government spending on the Medicare rebate has not kept up with those rising costs for decades.
Australian Medical Association Tasmania vice president Dr John Saul said the IHACPA report was evidence the formula for indexing Medicare was broken.
"The Medicare rebate is so divorced from the reality of the cost of quality medicine that we're seeing people unable to bulk bill in droves," he said.
"We think if there is no change in the next six months or so, we will see another 25 per cent drop in bulk-billing for health care card holders, and these are our most vulnerable patients."
As fewer and fewer have access to bulk billing, more and more patients will be forced to present at the hospital emergency departments, adding to the strain on the state system, Dr Saul said.
"The 25 per cent drop in bulk billing - that can represent up to $3 million worth of presentations to emergency departments around Australia. If we don't get this right, it will be a massive impact on the state government," he said.
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Launceston GP and assistant state secretary of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, Dr Toby Gardner, agreed that the steady decline of bulk billing has made it much more difficult for vulnerable Tasmanians and pensioners to access a general practitioner.
But the rebate situation also impacts the future of GPs, he said, by reinforcing a vicious circle that is discouraging medical school graduates from choosing general practice as a career.
"There are less and less of us now, which is making it hard to do the job on those that are left, which is making it really hard when you are trying to run a business and you can't keep up with the costs."