Australia has copped the full force of nature in recent years and this onslaught will continue.
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An anniversary is not required to remember the deluge and devastation that started on the east coast this week 12 months ago, and wreaked havoc across so many places throughout 2022. That will stay with those who experienced it forever.
The first day of the floods was merely the start of an ongoing battle as clean up, recovery, rebuilding and retreating are all still on today's to-do list.
Tragically, people lost their lives. Trauma, heartache, economic stress and health problems will continue long into the future.
The damage is now ranked as Australia's greatest natural hazard insurance loss at $5.76 billion.
These losses do not include the broader social, economic and infrastructure losses that too are significant.
Australia - most other countries too - needs to better understand risk.
Science tells us severe weather will worsen. We cannot just think about floods when it might rain. With climate change, this will happen again - for floods and bushfires, severe storms, heatwaves and cyclones.
We only need to look to New Zealand's recent experience, with the compounding impacts of multiple floods and ex-Cyclone Gabrielle within a short timeframe. We need to break the cycle of responding only to the immediate hazard of the day and only thinking of recovery through the lens of the last event.
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Now is the time to change policy and shape the future needed. We can only do this by accepting a significant shift in approach is needed; without this, we will have the same vulnerabilities.
We must be courageous in planning for communities to be sustainable, safe and resilient. Australia has a long history of using research, innovation and science to reduce the risks we face. But there are further opportunities to adopt this knowledge into practice to make a giant leap forward in our thinking.
So, what can we do? Here is a bold five-point plan for mitigating our future natural hazard risk.
- Better land-use planning: We must adopt strategies so future development is appropriate in a changing climate. Current planning standards are not enough in some locations. The NSW Flood Inquiry wisely recommended flood-planning levels should be reviewed to account for the intensification of rainfall in a warmer climate. The science shows us how to identify areas of lower risk - let's have policies that positively encourage development in low-hazard risk areas where damages can be much less.
- Let's build better: We already know from research how to build houses and infrastructure that is more resilient to flood. Let's develop the policies that mandate building materials that are not destroyed in a flood. Research has shown mitigation investments are cost effective and can pay for themselves many times over. For every dollar invested in retrofitting flood-prone homes with hazard-resilient materials, five dollars are saved in response and recovery. Mitigation saves lives and money, making insurance premiums more affordable through reduced risk.
- Accept that some places are untenable for housing: People may not be able to live where they live now. The elimination of risk entirely is only possible by removing homes and businesses from floodplains, high fire risk zones or low-lying coastal areas. Major buyback schemes are now being implemented in some parts of NSW and Queensland to relocate homes from floodplains, but not for the first time in Australia, and the effort won't be without difficulties. Voluntary buyback programs are expensive up front, disruptive to communities and rely on willing sellers. Not everyone will want to move. They are high-cost proposals, but the benefits are significant if a safer community is achieved. Decisions need to be made before disasters so that individuals can decide their future - life changing decisions are too hard during moments of high stress.
- More must be done for communities that cannot be moved. If it is essential but can't be relocated - be it housing, industry, agriculture or other infrastructure - then it must be supported by other means including stronger mitigation, community resilience measures, faster response and long-term recovery support. This requires a whole of community approach.
- Work better with the natural landscape, including incorporating Indigenous knowledge, to be open to how the environment can play a vital role in the bigger picture. For floods, we can reforest water catchments and restore wetlands. Both options lower the risk of smaller floods, but also offer wider benefits such as better air and water quality, a healthier place for plants and animals, and more areas for public recreation.
We can't conquer nature, but we can learn to better live with what it throws at us. Doing the same won't get us there. Courageous decisions are required. Science can provide the direction.
- Andrew Gissing is the chief executive officer of Natural Hazards Research Australia.
