Why energy bill shocks might spell end to Labor's honeymoon

Shock at the sheer amount they're being forced to cough up.

And shock at the fact their bills are rising at all.

Didn't the government recall Parliament and rush through laws to prevent this from happening, some might be wondering.

That is not exactly true.

But in politics, where perception turns quickly into reality, that mightn't matter for the Albanese government.

As it pulls what levers it can to combat an international energy crisis sparked by an overseas war, the government is having to temper public expectations about how far its emergency intervention will go in bringing down prices.

Lets circle back to the facts.

The intervention, which includes a 12-month cap on wholesale gas prices, did not come with a promise that bills would fall, only that they wouldn't reach the peaks predicted in last October's federal budget.

According to Treasury analysis, the gas cap would mean a 4 per cent increase in retail prices in 2023-24, rather than the 20 per cent that had been predicted.

As reports of double-digit increases in retail prices have emerged in the media this week, Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has been at pains to point out that those were the result of deals locked in last year for 2023.

Mr Bowen has insisted the intervention isn't a failure as it was always going to take time for the wholesale price cap to translate into relief for customers.

That might be true.

But there's a risk for Labor that the facts, detail and nuance mean little to struggling households and business, who see the government's explanations as an excuse.

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Adding to Labor's potential perception problem is its all but doomed pre-election promise annual household power bills would fall 18 per cent - or $275 - by 2025 under its suite of climate and energy policies.

The $275 figure came from independent modelling from consultants RepuTex, which also produced the 43 per cent 2030 emissions reduction target which Anthony Albanese took to the federal election.

The modelling was done before Russia's invasion of Ukraine set off a global energy crisis, meaning the assumptions were quickly out of date.

But a promise is a promise, and admitting one will be broken carries consequences in politics.

The federal opposition has been taunting Labor about its $275 promise since the election, and is doing all it can to whip up fears about the government's energy market intervention.

After nine years in power, the Coalition's criticisms of Labor's handling of the energy crisis have been hollow, lacking credibility and resonance with the broader electorate.

But if households and businesses start feeling as though the government isn't doing enough to push down prices, the Coalition's message might start to cut through.

When it does, Labor's post-election political honeymoon will be over - if it isn't already.