The narrative has been one of success. In spite of our economic challenges, many commentators have been pointing to our strong jobs recovery and low unemployment rate.

But there's something missing from this story. Most employment statistics assume that each person can compete for every job.

We know this isn't true. Anglicare Australia's Jobs Availability Snapshot, released each year, shows what the job market is really like for people who don't have qualifications or experience. In every part of the country, they outnumber entry-level vacancies.

In spite all of the changes to the workforce over the past three years, the number of people with barriers to work has barely budged. Our numbers tell us that most have been out of work for about five years. Even with a rebound in job vacancies, people with barriers to work aren't getting them. They are competing with at least 15 other people for each entry-level role.

Our snapshot also shows that the jobs they're competing for are drying up. Just one in 10 of all vacancies are low-skilled jobs at the entry-level, compared to one in four 15 years ago.

What this tells us is that the unemployment rate isn't low because everyone who wants a job has one. Instead, many people are giving up on looking for work and dropping out of the workforce entirely.

For those without work, the JobSeeker payment has left them well below the poverty line.

It's hard to find work when you don't have enough food on the table, or can't afford an internet connection. Instead of forcing people to live in poverty and participate in a punitive system of obligations and penalties, we need to change how we support people looking for work, and create pathways for them to join the workforce.

Putting all of the pieces of this story together, it's clear that those who have been out of work long-term are being left out of the debate about jobs.

People with diplomas, degrees, and uninterrupted job histories clearly have more options. But for those without work experience, who left school early, or have been out of work long-term, the picture is stark.

But perhaps more than anything, the research shows that our endless succession of welfare crackdowns has failed.

The expansion of mutual obligation over the last 20 years, the barriers to young people accessing JobSeeker, and the growth of the work for the dole program have done nothing to help entry-level jobseekers and the long-term unemployed.

If the entry-level jobs that people need don't exist, then forcing them to apply for jobs they won't get is a losing strategy.

The answer is simple, but it's hard for governments to accept. We need to move away from forcing people onto an endless hamster wheel of job searching and training that isn't linked to real job prospects.

We also need to stop pretending that the job market will create the right jobs for the people who need them.

Instead we need to revisit the idea of job creation. These jobs should not be piecemeal and meaningless.

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They must offer a real line of sight to all the benefits that come with work. Creating entry-level jobs in aged and disability care, for example, would give people pathways into lasting careers - and help those sectors deal with looming workforce shortages.

And as the workforce grows more complex, we need to insulate people in entry-level jobs against the loss of work. All training including school education, vocational courses and on-the-job-training should include some foundation in the types of skills required in more advanced roles.

We know this can be done, and we know it works. We should be learning from examples of success. Our research goes beyond the gloomy statistics to show examples of programs that get people into work and keep them there.

Sticking with old, failing approaches makes no sense. Real success means everyone benefiting from a strong economy, not just those with degrees and experience. Job creation is the key to getting us there.