What Jim Chalmers won't be unveiling when he delivers his first federal budget, is the demise of the Morrison-era stage III tax cut, even though the case to do so is building.
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And even though many voters and possibly most MPs believe he should.
Legislated to commence in 2024-25, talk of ditching stage III has been ruled off-limits by the exigencies of politics. Exigencies Labor helped create before the election by promising to retain it.
But Labor's self-imposed no-fly-zone on tax hasn't extinguished all hopes of scrapping a change which will deliver annual gains of $9000-plus to higher-income earners - ie, people who don't actually need it.
It is no secret that the new Treasurer would prefer to see the final tranche nixed, delayed, or at least substantially tweaked in the interests of fairness, budget repair and higher priorities.
Which is why the debate over the merits of retention ballooned up out of nowhere a few weeks ago, before suddenly deflating when a hostile media and salivating Coalition reaction portended major government pain.
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So why is Chalmers still talking about it if it will not feature in the October 25 budget?
Because the projected revenue forgone within a national balance sheet already awash with red ink, just got worse.
Chalmers casually told Radio National on Thursday morning that the predicted $243 billion price tag for stage III in its first ten years of operation, has now blown out by around $11 billion to more than a quarter of a trillion dollars. That's a poultice of dough for a healthy budget expecting repeated surpluses and friendly global circumstances.
But for a debt-laden budget facing fierce global head winds, it borders on crazy.
Speaking of which, nobody credibly argues the top-end tax cut would even be initiated in the current dire circumstances when doing so would send interest rates higher and could ultimately prove fiscally ruinous.
Actually, scratch that, I just thought of some folks who have done just that - British PM Liz Truss and her now sacked treasurer, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Luckily, this is not Brexit-crazed Britain. Yet it is clear that even here, there are tensions between political temptations and budgetary rigours.
Chalmers' latest comments suggest that retaining stage III right now should not be read as the end of the war but merely the end of the beginning.
Mark Kenny
Mark Kenny is The Canberra Times' political analyst and a professor at the ANU's Australian Studies Institute. He hosts the Democracy Sausage podcast. He writes a column every Sunday.
Mark Kenny is The Canberra Times' political analyst and a professor at the ANU's Australian Studies Institute. He hosts the Democracy Sausage podcast. He writes a column every Sunday.
