The butterfly effect of Barnaby Joyce's second coming explained

Ironically, it will be the Liberal Party rather than the National Party that will be dealing with most of the implications.

First and foremost, Prime Minister Scott Morrison's job of dealing with the Nationals just got a whole lot harder.

There was a perception within Nationals that Michael McCormack failed to stand up to the Liberals and one of the motivating factors in elevating Joyce was to rectify that.

The Liberals are already aware dealing with the junior Coalition party is about to get a whole lot harder.

At the first joint-party room meeting with Joyce leading the Nationals, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg went to painstaking lengths to find obscure quotes from Liberal heavyweights, such as John Howard and Robert Menzie, talking up the benefits of unity between the two parties.

Climate action has already been widely acknowledged as a policy area where the two parties will butt heads under Joyce.

Prime Minister is facing global headwinds that will eventually force him to take significant action on climate change - to stand against the gale will result in carbon tariffs on Australian exports to some of the nation's largest trading partners, with the European Union, United States, Japan and South Korea all strongly considering implementing the tax.

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A lack of action could also mean trouble on the domestic front. A number of inner-city Liberal MPs, such as Trent Zimmerman, have been calling for meaningful action on climate change.

Without it, those MPs will face fierce competition from independent candidates and face the real possibility of losing their seat, in the same way former PM Tony Abbott lost his seat to Zali Steggall.

All these reasons have contributed to Morrison slowly softening his language towards a 2050 carbon-neutral target over the past 18 months and was expected to make a significant commitment to bring Australia in line with the global trend in November, at the United Nations climate change conference in Glasgow.

The slow-and-steady approach was also done in the (unsuccessful) hope of avoiding a Nationals revolt over the issue.

Joyce was vague on the party's stance when quizzed about it this week. But he and a number of his key supporters, including Bridget McKenzie and Keith Pitt, have all previously signalled they are not supportive of a carbon-neutral target.

They fear a reduction in national emissions will come at the cost of regional jobs and severely impact the resource industry.

Morrison is unlikely to make a commitment now, for fear of a Nationals tantrum close to election time. If he does decide to push ahead, significant concessions will have to be made to the Nationals, who may demand the funding of a coal-fire power station in Collinsville.

Joyce has talked a big game to his Nationals colleagues about getting a better deal for the regional party. He and Morrison will have to sign a new Coalition agreement - which will remain secret - and Joyce will be expected to negotiate hard.

A number of Liberal MPs have voiced concern their party may lose women voters in metropolitan seats due to Joyce's affair and sexual harassment allegation (which he strongly denies), particularly in light of a number of high-profile gender issues within Parliament House.

Labor has thrown the first of many questions at Joyce over the concern of women and will be sure to put pressure on what is seen as a political pressure point.

A frontbench reshuffle is expected by the end of the week, before the parliament winter break, as a number of Joyce's supporters are in line for a promotion - exactly who voted for him will not be revealed, but it's possible to make an educated guess.

It's been reported the 11 who voted for Joyce included all five of the Nationals senators, Andrew Gee, George Christensen, Keith Pitt, Llew O'Brien, David Gillespie and Joyce himself.

Of those likely to be rewarded with a new or expanded portfolio include Andrew Gee, and Senators Bridget McKenzie and Susan McDonald.

Allies of McCormack, such as Darren Chester, are likely to be dumped from the frontbench.

Joyce has previously stated the Nationals deserve another minister on the front bench given the ratio of MPs it represents within the Coalition. However, it's a tall order as Morrison would loath to demote one of his own for the sake of appeasing the Nationals.

Joyce may choose to take McCormack's multi-billion infrastructure portfolio, which he previously held before he stepped down three years ago.

Trade is another portfolio the party has long sought after.

Since the 1950s, it has traditionally been held by the Nationals, however that tradition was broken in 2013, when Liberal Andrew Robb was appointed to the role, and it has since been held by the Liberals.

However, with Dan Tehan recently securing the UK free-trade agreement, his job appears safe.

David Littleproud has confirmed he'll remain Agriculture Minister and deputy leader of the party.

Joyce and his supporters claimed his leadership style would be more effective for the upcoming election in Queensland, the Northern Territory and the NSW Hunter Valley.

But it remains to be seen if the statement is merely political spin to hide personal ambition.

However, despite the pending retirement of George Christensen and Llew O'Brien, the Nationals are not in danger of losing any seats in Queensland, where it enjoys a double-figure majority in all electorates.

The Nationals senate vote in the Northern Territory has remained consistent over the years through the Country Liberal vote.

The party is make a play for the Hunter seat of Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon, after his first preference-vote dropped more than 14 pc at the last election after local backlash to the Labor's inconsistent stance on coal.

But unseating Fitzgibbon remains a huge task. He's spent the past three years preaching to his base by declaring his undying love for coal.