For much of summer there was a constant criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology for its forecast that the season would be dry and hot.
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It was certainly hot but also humid and for many parts of the country far wetter than forecast.
However in Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter shires 'the predicted El Nino' arrived in spring and has basically hung around ever since. El Nino is a weather pattern associated with hotter and drier conditions.
The three local government areas of the Upper Hunter contain the state's only intense drought impacted areas.
The region also contains the majority of the state's drought affected districts with the remaining areas found in pockets on the North and South coasts.
A record dry spring established a pattern for the Upper Hunter before some storm rain in early summer provided a reprieve for those luck enough to be under the storm clouds.
Unfortunately the storm clouds have been few and far between and there has been virtually no run-off to replenish on-farm water supplies.
In neighbouring Dungog Shire, where some decent fall were recorded in early summer, local member Dave Layzell has written to the NSW Government seeking clarification of why the Dungog Local Government Area has been left out of a drought grants program.
"The Dungog area was one of the first in the Hunter Region to be identified by the Department of Primary Industries as being drought-affected in June last year," Mr Layzell said.
"According to the Combined Drought Indicator, the situation only deteriorated during spring and summer, with the most recent report for January 2024 showing Dungog and much of my electorate as being in drought."
Singleton, Muswellbrook and Upper Hunter Shire councils last month announced that they have received $450,000 to develop and start to deliver the Upper Hunter Drought Resilience Plan.
According to the Regional Drought Resilience Planning website, applications for Regional Drought Resilience Planning Program Round 1, 2022-2024 and Round 2, 2023-2025 have now closed.
The Regional Drought Resilience Planning Program is jointly funded by the Australian Government's Future Drought Fund and the NSW Government.
"I have written to Minister for Agriculture and Regional NSW, Tara Moriarty, to seek an explanation as to why Dungog has been omitted, at this stage, from the Regional Drought Resilience Planning Program," Mr Layzell said.
"Farming constituents in the Dungog area have contacted me asking when the NSW Government will announce drought support measures to assist them with this 'drought declaration' after the monthly release of the drought indicator reports.
"I am at a loss to explain how Dungog can have the DPI describe it as experiencing drought - yet the NSW Government has not assisted the local community to build drought resilience."
Mr Layzell has suggested to Minister Moriarty that the Upper Hunter Drought Resilience Plan be expanded to include the Dungog LGA.
Looking ahead he seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is 35% to 55% chance of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the February to April period. Parts of eastern NSW and the far west have a 20 - 40% chance of above median rainfall for this outlook period.
Temperatures are expected to be well above median across NSW for the outlook period.
The ENSO Outlook status is at El Nio and the Southern Oscillation Index is positive.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value is neutral and the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the IOD values will remain neutral until at least April.
Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and local systems continue to bring the prospect of instability in week-to-week weather during this forecast period.
Louise Nichols
From cattle to coal. Once a specialist agriculture writer today its about community, in particular, the Upper Hunter. I have lived and worked in the region for more than 30 years. Land use issues and the future direction of our region. But you cannot take ag out of the picture - our food and how we grow it is the basis of all life. Covering the Hunter and Mid North Coast rural issues is now part of my role with ACM.
From cattle to coal. Once a specialist agriculture writer today its about community, in particular, the Upper Hunter. I have lived and worked in the region for more than 30 years. Land use issues and the future direction of our region. But you cannot take ag out of the picture - our food and how we grow it is the basis of all life. Covering the Hunter and Mid North Coast rural issues is now part of my role with ACM.
