The stars aligned for the ambitious Nationals senator in 2013. Popular, longstanding independent MP Tony Windsor conveniently decided to retire after holding the seat for 12 years and the Nationals’ original candidate, NSW independent MP Richard Torbay was forced to to stand aside after becoming embroiled in an Independent Commission Against Corruption investigation.

This ultimately presented Mr Joyce, a Queensland-based senator who grew up in New England, with a low-risk opportunity to slip into the House of Representatives. And despite spirited opposition from Independent Rob Taber, that scenario unfolded, with the Nationals maverick returning the seat to its conservative roots with a very safe winning margin of 19.5 per cent.

Fast forward three years and the unexpected return of Mr Windsor has turned what should have been a ‘no contest’ into one of the more intriguing and colourful campaigns of the 2016 election, as political enthusiasts across the country watch to see if the dogged independent can unseat the man who is now Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister.

It almost seems you can’t turn on the television or open a newspaper without seeing an Akubra-wearing Mr Joyce belting across his 66,000 square kilometre electorate in his four-wheel-drive with a  journalist in tow. The straight-talking Nat has always been acutely aware of the importance of maintaining a high profile - “Boring is the worst affliction of any politician,” he told ABC 24 this week  - and knows the value of media coverage, good or bad.

“Confident, but not cocky” is Mr Joyce’s standard response when asked how he rates his chances, but there is no doubt Mr Windsor’s return has caused him to step up his campaign. The pair have little personal regard for each other and Mr Windsor is a credible threat, despite having alienated many in this conservative-leaning constituency with his support of Julia Gillard’s Labor government during the last hung parliament.  

Mr Windsor is quick to defend his independent credentials by pointing out that he played a similar role in the NSW state parliament in 1991, which allowed the Nick Greiner-led Coalition to form government.

The 65-year-old insists his comeback campaign is not about “sending a message” to Mr Joyce; rather, he is in it to win it.

“Australians need to challenge the short-term nature of political debate and demand better,” he said.

Mr Winsdor regards the hot-button issues as regional health resources, deficiencies in NBN technology, climate change and resource management, and the government’s failure to commit to the final two years of the Gonski education reforms.

Key among them is the growing conflict between agriculture and mining, and the sustainability of the coalmining industry. Controversy over the proposed Shenhua Watermark mine looms large in this debate, an issue now shared with the adjacent seat of Parkes following the boundary redistribution.

Mr Joyce has had to wear the flak from his government’s approval of the Chinese-owned open cut mine on the Liverpool Plains, even though he personally opposes it. In turn, Mr Joyce accuses Mr Windsor of doing nothing to stop the proposal when he was the MP and questions his credentials in the mining debate because the independent sold his Werris Creek family farm to Whitehaven Coal.

Coal seam gas (CSG) mining is also a contentious issue across the electorate, with landholders concerned about water contamination and the destruction of farming land. Recent revelations that Santos intends to drill for CSG inside the electorate on the Liverpool Plains has put it on the election agenda.

It is an issue that has seen Mr Joyce fall out of step with his state colleagues, who have continued to allow exploration on the agriculturally rich plains despite excluding vineyard and horse-breeding areas in the Hunter. Joyce opposes mining on prime agricultural land but says the matter is out of his hands because the state government has jurisdiction. Angry CSG opponents at a live election telecast of the ABC panel show Q&A from Tamworth Town Hall earlier this month were unimpressed with that response, insisting the federal government should intervene.

Independent candidate Philip Cox believes the two mining issues are among the constiuency’s central concerns.

“Our prime agricultural  land and aquifers must be protected from rapacious coalmining interests.”

The adequacy of the government’s fibre-to-the-node version National Broadband Network is another key concern in the electorate, and might throw a few votes the way of Country Labor candidate David Ewings following Labor’s announcement this week that it will revert to fibre-to-the-home. 

While admitting in a recent interview that he feels like a bit of a third wheel in a campaign so focused on the two leading contenders, Mr Ewings is determined to give New England voters a choice and establish a relationship with the constituency his party can build on.

“NBN is not about online entertainment and cat photos – fibre NBN is the most important piece of economic infrastructure that small business in regional Australia needs to be competitive with the rest of the world,” he said.

Mr Ewings lives in Scone, one of the Upper Hunter towns that shifted into the New England electorate after the redistribution, and has a background in mining. He believes the conflict between agriculture and mining can be resolved with a more collaborative approach.

Agricultural sustainability is a key policy for the new CountryMinded party, which is standing Moree farmer David Mailler in the seat. Formed just 18 months ago, the party offers itself to rural voters as an alternative to the Nationals and Country Labor, which Mr Mailler says have been “captured by a party-first politick”.

“Generational transfer and equity are important issues for me and for the past decade I have had a keen interest in agricultural sustainability,” said Mr Mailler, who went back to university as a mature-age student in 2011 to study environmental resilience.

Mecurius Goldstein, the Greens candidate, is a former Novocastrian now living in Glen Innes. He has taken an adversarial approach to the campaign, calling out the incumbent MP for inaction on mining and coal seam gas  and  a “pork-barrelling” announcement to move the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority from Canberra to the Northern Tablelands. Mr Joyce has been criticised for announcing the transfer without waiting for a cost-benefit analysis.

"It looks like Barnaby Joyce is relocating jobs to Armidale in an attempt to save his own,” Mr Goldstein said.

The Greens want to establish a National Centre for Sustainable Agriculture in the electorate, which Mr Goldstein said would employ 180 specialist agriculture officers to assist farmers.

Rob Taber, who collected 35.5 percent of the two-party preferred vote in 2013,  had the wind taken from his campaign sails by the unexpected nomination of Mr Windsor, but  is actively campaigning regardless, branding himself the “true independent” in the race. 

The owner of a solar panel business, Mr Taber is a strong advocate for renewable energy development.

The contest for New England has created a ballot paper that could almost rival the Senate ‘tablecloth’, with 10 candidates on the sheet. The others standing are Stan Colefax (Christian Democrats), Peter Whelan (Liberal Democratic Party) and Robert Walker (Online Direct Democracy).