PM Turnbull's first official visit to China likely to focus on economic and trade ties

Malcolm Turnbull is often fond of pointing out he and Chinese President Xi Jinping share an interest in the history of the Peloponnesian war and the Thucydides Trap.

Turnbull, who travels to China on Thursday in his first official visit as prime minister, recounts the story  where an incumbent power (think, in this case the US), is made so anxious by a rising power (think China), it makes conflict – and full-blown war – inevitable.

"Now, if avoiding the Thucydides Trap is a core objective of China's strategy - as President Xi insists it is - then we would hope that China's actions would be carefully calculated to make conflict less likely, not more, and would seek to reassure neighbours of and build their confidence in China's intentions," he said during a visit to Washington in January.

It is through this lens that Turnbull has repeatedly described China's assertiveness and programme of island-building in the South China Sea as "counterproductive", saying it only serves and only serving to unsettle rival claimants and other neighbours in the region, many who have turned to the US for strategic support. Needless to say, that unsolicited world view advice has fallen flat in Beijing.

When Turnbull became prime minister in September, pundits were quick to speculate how his extensive business experience and nuanced interest in China, even his family ties, might mould his approach to what is arguably Australia's most important bilateral relationship.

In an interview with ABC's 7.30 within a week of being sworn in, he set his stall out early. Asked by Leigh Sales what he considered the greatest threat to global security, he nominated two: the spectre of terrorism threatened by the Islamic State, and the need to ensure China's rise continued in a peaceful manner.

But with a federal budget and election run-in just around the corner, the Turnbull government's attention is firmly on domestic matters. On Chinese soil, it is unlikely the prime minister's language on the South China Sea will deviate much from what has been said before. The same goes for other areas of disagreement, including a deepening crackdown on civil society and tightening control of the internet within China.

Like the one-day whistlestop visit to Tokyo late last year, the program is tight, with only two days across Shanghai and Beijing. Much of the visit and discussions in meetings with Xi and Premier Li Keqiang​ will be focused on economic and trade ties.

"In consideration of bilateral relations and domestic politics in Australia what might be the best option is to take this as a working visit and talk about how to support and push forward the trade relationship with China during a difficult time [with China's slowing economy]," Shi Yinhong​, professor of international relations at Beijing's Renmin University, said. "Make it less political or strategically oriented as possible."

Turnbull's visit coincides with Australia Week in China, which kicks off Monday and has been billed as Australia's largest ever trade mission. Led by Trade Minister Steven Ciobo​, Trade Special Envoy Andrew Robb and Tourism and International Education Minister Richard Colbeck, this year's edition will see more than 1000 delegates, mostly small-to-medium business owners, attend events spread over nine cities on the mainland as well as Hong Kong.

Turnbull remains a long-term optimist on China's economic potential, though the challenge is to ensure that Australia's economy adapts as China slows and goes through a difficult transition: from one based on construction, heavy manufacturing and exports, to one based on services and domestic consumption.

The eight business streams on offer at Australia Week reflect this shift; they include agribusiness, health and aged care, and innovation. The premium food and beverage stream – designed to promote Australian brands to an increasingly discerning and quality-conscious Chinese market – has attracted more than 300 sign-ups. In contrast, a planned mining stream was cancelled early in the works due to low interest.

But far from the heady days of double-digit growth, serious questions are now being asked of the Communist Party's stewardship of a slowing economy, especially errant attempts to intervene in the country's sharemarkets and unpredictable currency plays, both of which failed to arrest a bursting of its stockmarket bubble while fanning global volatility.

Meanwhile, worsening overcapacity in China's once booming coal and steel industries has sparked sporadic workers' strikes and social unrest. The need to sustain economic growth, meanwhile, has sparked concerns vital reforms will only be pushed back further. Anxiety over social disquiet over its fracturing economy has prompted Xi to double down on the party's crackdown on dissent and criticism.

In speeches made in Washington, Tokyo and Australia, Turnbull has emphasised the importance of China continuing on the path toward open markets and rule of law, rather than reverting deeper into a walled-off security state.

"The rewards from China continuing its 40-year journey towards open markets, rule-of-law… are well worth the challenges along the way," he said in a speech last month.

"They are arguably the greatest challenges that China has faced in a generation. China cannot afford to turn its back on that progress – nor would it – any more than it could after the death of Mao."